Archive for the ‘读’ Category

回答boxiangrui提出的一个教材中的疑问

星期一, 三月 2nd, 2009
之前一位boxiangrui的网友(同学?)提出,我写的《大众传播理论:范式与流派》一书第6章《大众传播的影响:社会心理取向》中“沉默螺旋”的部分存在一个不解之处。

他说:“P200,图表说明里,预期:谁会赢得选战?后面的党派与图示是不是搞错了?根据文章中意思,1965年9月上升的应该是社会民主党赢吧?”

教材以1965年的联邦德国选举为例,说明了意见气候对人们投票行为的影响。这个选举之所以导致了诺伊曼的注意,是因为在实际支持率一直不相上下的选举中,基督教民主党在最后一分钟突然超过了社会民主党,获得胜利。诺伊曼后来发现,原因在于虽然两党实际支持率差不多,但之前很长一段时间人们都认为基民党中会获胜。正是这种对意见气候的估计导致了社民党的支持者自以为是少数,不敢表达自己看法,出现了沉默的螺旋。


但是书上也举到一个例子,诺伊曼的一个学生戴着基民党的徽章(button)出去,结果到中午她就自己摘下来,说实在受不了别人看他的眼光和压力。诺伊曼以这个例子用来说明少数派如果表达自己的看法,会受到社会孤立,因此他们变得小心谨慎,不敢再轻易发表意见。


这位网友非常仔细,看出了这两个例子的矛盾之处:不是基民党支持率高吗,怎么会给戴徽章的学生压力呢?


因为我的资料在北京家中,当时没法立即回答这个同学的疑问。今天在图书馆想起此事,查了下《沉默的螺旋》这本书,发现这两个地方的事实并不矛盾,只是缺少了背景时间的交待。诺伊曼所举的学生的例子发生在1972年,这一年的选举结果与1965年刚好相反,社民党获胜。但是两次选举都出现了最后一分钟跟进现象。


有机会修改的话,应该加上一个注解,就不会引起读者迷惑了。感谢boxiangrui的细心,还有提出的其他几点意见。





奥巴马就职典礼上的“假奏”

星期六, 一月 24th, 2009
默菲定理告诉我们,越不想出错,就越容易出错。万众瞩目的奥巴马就职典礼,不仅宣誓法官忘词导致奥巴马接不上,出现尴尬场面,而且后来被媒体爆出,马友友等人的四重奏放的是录音,他们只负责表演陶醉表情。因为考虑到天气过冷,手指发僵无法正常演出,美国人干脆也搞了个假奏。甚至马友友等人曾经怕严寒天气冷坏名贵古琴,还考虑过拿个劣制货充数。

美国媒体在08奥运会开幕式林妙可假唱问题上,津津乐道“追究”了很多天,这次理由如出一辙,但是媒体反应冷淡,这是不是双重标准呢?

媒体报道链接:
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/23/arts/music/23band.html?th&emc=th

=======================================
January 23, 2009

The Frigid Fingers Were Live, but the Music Wasn’t

By DANIEL J. WAKIN

It was not precisely lip-synching, but pretty close.

The somber, elegiac tones before President Obama’s oath of office at the inauguration on Tuesday came from the instruments of Yo-Yo Ma, Itzhak Perlman and two colleagues. But what the millions on the Mall and watching on television heard was in fact a recording, made two days earlier by the quartet and matched tone for tone by the musicians playing along.

The players and the inauguration organizing committee said the arrangement was necessary because of the extreme cold and wind during Tuesday’s ceremony. The conditions raised the possibility of broken piano strings, cracked instruments and wacky intonation minutes before the president’s swearing in (which had problems of its own).

“Truly, weather just made it impossible,” Carole Florman, a spokeswoman for the Joint Congressional Committee on Inaugural Ceremonies, said on Thursday. “No one’s trying to fool anybody. This isn’t a matter of Milli Vanilli,” Ms. Florman added, referring to the pop band that was stripped of a 1989 Grammy because the duo did not sing on their album and lip-synched in concerts.

Ms. Florman said that the use of a recording was not disclosed beforehand but that the NBC producers handling the television pool were told of its likelihood the day before.

The network said it sent a note to pool members saying that the use of recordings in the musical numbers was possible. Inaugural musical performances are routinely recorded ahead of time for just such an eventuality, Ms. Florman said. The Marine Band and choruses, which performed throughout the ceremony, did not use a recording, she said.

“It’s not something we would announce, but it’s not something we would try to hide,” Ms. Florman said. “Frankly, it would never have occurred to me to announce it. The fact they were forced to perform to tape because of the weather did not seem relevant, nor would we want to draw attention away from what we believed the news is, that we were having a peaceful transition of power from one administration to the next.”

Anthony McGill, a principal clarinetist of the Metropolitan Opera, and the pianist Gabriela Montero joined Mr. Ma and Mr. Perlman in “Air and Simple Gifts,” a piece written for the occasion by John Williams. While not all music critics agreed about the quality of the piece, some took note of the frigid circumstances for the performers. And the classical music world was heartened by the prominent place given to its field.

Mr. Perlman said the recording, which was made Sunday at the Marine Barracks in Washington, was used as a last resort.

“It would have been a disaster if we had done it any other way,” he said Thursday in a telephone interview. “This occasion’s got to be perfect. You can’t have any slip-ups.”

The musicians wore earpieces to hear the playback.

Performing along to recordings of oneself is a venerable practice, and it is usually accompanied by a whiff of critical disapproval. Famous practitioners since the Milli Vanilli affair include Ashlee Simpson, caught doing it on “Saturday Night Live,” and Luciano Pavarotti, discovered lip-synching during a concert in Modena, Italy. More recently, Chinese organizers superimposed the voice of a sweeter-singing little girl on that of a 9-year-old performer featured at the opening ceremony of last summer’s Olympic Games.

In the case of the inauguration, the musicians argued that the magnitude of the occasion and the harsh weather made the dubbing necessary and that there was no shame in it.

“I really wanted to do something that was absolutely physically and emotionally and, timing-wise, genuine,” Mr. Ma said. “We also knew we couldn’t have any technical or instrumental malfunction on that occasion. A broken string was not an option. It was wicked cold.”

Along with admiration for the musicians’ yeoman work in the cold, questions had swirled in the classical music world about whether Mr. Ma and Mr. Perlman would use their valuable cello and violin in the subfreezing weather. Both used modern instruments. Mr. Ma said he had considered using a hardy carbon-fiber cello, but rejected the idea to avoid distracting viewers with its unorthodox appearance.

“What we were there for,” he said, “was to really serve the moment.”



twitter

星期一, 十二月 8th, 2008

最近twitter很红,关于它的消息不断,一个是在孟买的恐怖袭击中twitter迅速及时地发布信息抢了传统媒体的风头,二是CNN开会讨论要做通讯社,非常低调,不用互联网发布信息,twitter又成为人们获知大会信息的主要来源(《纽约时报》借这个事情揶揄了一下记者,它的标题是“Journalists Are a Chatty Bunch, as CNN Finds Out on Twitter ”),三是facebook开价5亿元的收购twitter遭拒。

看来新一轮的概念炒作又开始了。说你行,你就行,不行也行啊。

到现在为止,twitter好像还没有正式的中文名称吧?

 

==========================

转贴一篇报道:

 

 【《财经网》专稿/记者何华峰】Twitter,一家创办仅两年、员工只有25名且没有一分钱收入的网站,当著名的Facebook试图以5亿美元收购它时,它竟然拒绝了。
  作为美国当红的web2.0网站之一,Twitter被称为迷你博客网站或手机博客网站,即用户可以通过手机把消息实时发布到网上,以便亲戚和朋友随时了解自己的近况。
  今年11月底,BoomTown.com的专栏作家卡拉·斯韦什尔(Kara Swisher)率先披露,三周前,Facebook打算以价值5亿美元的股票收购Twitter。
  不过,12月2日,Twitter的首席执行官埃文·威廉姆斯(Evan Williams)在旧金山的一个公开场合对媒体宣布,目前,Twitter并不打算卖给Facebook,因为时机不对。

“你在干什么?”
  “你在干什么?”这是我们经常问身边亲戚朋友的问题。以前,我们通过见面、打电话或写电邮来了解,有时也会通过第三方间接打听朋友的近况。这几乎是我们保持亲朋好友交流圈子最重要的方式。
  但不得不说,要保持信息的更新,其实是有成本的——你得花时间并主动地去问。事实上,大部分人只能照顾很少的几对人际关系。1992年,英国人类学家Robin Dunbar曾得出结论称,人最多只能处理150对人际关系。
  而且,大家有兴趣了解的往往是相对重要的事,比如朋友换了工作或者结婚了等等。人们通常不会把自己正在煮咖啡以及看一部电影这样的生活琐碎片段——尽管可能对自己很重要,通过打电话或者写电邮的方式告诉别人。
  这就是Twitter存在的理由了。
  在这里,每个人都可以把正在干些什么、想些什么、遇见了什么等等,用手机实时把消息发上去,只要不超过140字。比如,你正在理发,正在打球等等。这样,想了解身边的人在干什么,你只需把他们添加到你的网页列表上,各种各样关于他们的信息就会随时更新。
  这样,你的人际圈子就更加显得丰富多彩和五彩缤纷了。
  Twitter用起来非常方便:你可以在电脑上,也可以用手机,甚至可以通过IM工具,如Gtalk,随时把信息发到网上。
  因为满足了人们这个看似微不足道的需求,Twitter迅速窜红。Twitter的英文原意是形容小鸟叽叽喳喳地叫——人们在Twitter上的交流确实犹如小鸟之间的交流,轻快、活泼、七嘴八舌。
  Twitter诞生于2007年3月。在前半年里,因为技术问题,网站经常出现故障。当年秋天开始,Twitter的业务开始有了起色。现在,Twitter拥有600万名用户。当然,经常访问的用户要小于这一数字。据悉,一个最疯狂的用户居然订阅了1.78万人的消息,自己的消息则被6000人订阅。

价值连城?
  Facebook看中Twitter并非偶然。Facebook是目前全球最大的社交网站,为人们与朋友联系提供了很大的便利。为人们提供实时交流空间的Twitter则通过另一种形式使得人们的沟通更加顺畅和频密,更加缩小彼此的距离。
  理论上说,一旦Facebook成功收购Twitter,其高达1亿多的用户消息更新频率将被大大加速,从而极大地增加网站的粘度;对于Twitter,与Facebook的结合将一下子带给自己上亿的用户。
  问题是,Facebook并非现金收购,而是用股票,而Facebook的股价很难定价。去年,微软以2.4亿美元获得了Facebook1.6%的股份。以此计算,Facebook的估值高达150亿美元。但市场普遍认为,这个估值过高。
   另外,Twitter的自我估值可能已超过5亿美元。Silicon Alley Insider的专业博客写手Henry Blodget曾认为,这个网站价值10亿美元。
   尽管目前Twitter还没有任何收入,但它的投资人和高管对未来的赢利抱有很大信心,他们也不愿在没有收入之前卖掉,因为这种情况下的价格很可能会偏低。
  威廉姆斯说,Facebook和Twitter的合并问题不排除将来再谈,但现在“还不到时间”。
  Twitter从风险投资那里筹集了2000万美元。公司曾计划在2009年中期再融一轮风险投资,到2010年再考虑收入问题。现在,由于经济衰退的出现,公司决定从明年一季度开始,重点考虑收入问题。
  威廉姆斯称,每天都有公司打来电话,意欲提供赞助,但他不想通过广告赚钱。一些公司用Twitter与消费者直接对话并通过卖产品来赚钱,比如,JetBlue Airways、戴尔和Whole Foods Market已经在使用Twitter扩大营销。
  威廉姆斯表示,现在并没有研究太多的商业案例,也还没有商业人员。
  截至12月4日,Twitter的Alexa全球排名是第443位。

Twitter通讯社?
  Twitter红火还有一个重要原因,是其作为新闻发布渠道的价值,这也是Facebook相中Twitter的重要原因。
  最近的一个例子发生在11月底印度孟买的恐怖袭击事件中。当时,Twitter一度众所瞩目。
  在恐怖袭击发生后不久,一些现场的人员通过手机,在Twitter上发布了这一消息以及现场的情况,成为最早的关于袭击事件的报道。还有一些Twitter的博客写手则不断地发出消息。一位名叫蒂娜·莫塔(Dina Mehta)的女商人,由于所住地方距离袭击发生地点仅有八公里,她整天在阳台上观察,随时看电视报道,通过Twitter不断向外界发出消息。例如,11月28日早上5时39分,她的一条留言是“从泰姬马哈酒店,不断有枪声传出。”
  随着恐怖袭击事件的进展,Twitter上的大量现场发来的信息被传统的报纸和电视台引用。
  事实上,Twitter的出现大大改变了人们对危机报道的理解。媒体专家Mindy Mcadams在博客中总结了这样几条规律:
  一是突发新闻会首先在网络上出现,然后才在电视中出现;
  二是突发新闻,特别是城市中的灾难或袭击,首先报道的会是非专业记者;
  三是即便在专业记者到达现场后,非专业记者还会不断地提供新的信息;
  四是手机会成为最初的报道工具,而且会持续数小时。如果手机可以上网,将会是更强大的报道工具。
  也正是在孟买恐怖袭击事件期间,Twitter的流量达到历史最高。这显然也是Facebook看中Twitter的地方。
  
模仿者们
  不过,从现在来看,促使威廉姆斯卖掉Twitter的因素也有不少,这可能也是Twitter“不排险未来继续与Facebook洽谈”的原因。
  Twitter的最大挑战是,它有越来越多的模仿者,而且有人宣称,自己“能做的比Twitter更好”。比如Yammer,这是一种适合在工作场合使用的手机博客;在中国,与Twitter相似概念的网站就有六家——叽歪de、饭否、来咕拉、巴布、做啥和爱唠叨。
  最让威廉姆斯担心的,是微软或雅虎有可能进军迷你博客。
  另外,Twitter还有一个缺陷,就是信息过于泛滥,这影响了不少用户的忠诚度。笔者也注册了一个Twitter账户。在这一账户里,记者有八个联系人,有一个说,“正在看电视,关于经济危机的”,六天前更新;另一位表示“我的脖子疼,疼……真的很疼”,而那是在7月17日的事了;还有一位,他的最后更新发生在2007年10月13日。
  Twitter也正在寻找办法,比如让用户可以选择性向特定组群发送信息,还可以根据特定主题过滤接收人等。
  总之,Twitter拒绝Facebook的“求婚”究竟是对还是错,目前尚难有定论。在这个什么都可能发生的互联网世界里,Twitter或许一年内市值猛增到50亿美元,或许一文不值,谁又知道呢?■

 

 

 

骂死网友,因言获罪

星期三, 十二月 3rd, 2008

这是一则11月27日的旧闻,当天本想贴上,但好像sina blog那天出了故障。今天想起来,其实这个事情还是有一定意义。

事情起因是美国密苏里州49岁妇女洛丽·德鲁利用虚假身份在“我的空间”注册,冒充一名16岁少男与13岁女孩梅甘·迈尔(迈尔曾是德鲁的儿子的朋友)交往,对其进行讥讽辱骂并致其自杀(关于此事的详细经过,见http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Megan_Meier)。27日的新闻讲的就是联邦地区法院判决洛丽·德鲁罪名成立。她将受到最高3年监禁和罚款30万美元的惩罚。

记得小时候听广播评书《三国演义》,袁阔成分析诸葛亮骂死王朗的故事时,替罗贯中打圆场,说这可能是对方心脏病发作导致的,这令我我印象非常深刻(王朗在《世说新语》里也出现过,还是扮演负面角色,见《世说·德行》王朗、华歆乘船遇贼人求救故事)。没想到在网络的虚似交往中,这种现象也会出现——虽然没有小说里描写的那么夸张。可见言语真的能够杀人,甚至虚拟对象的语言也会造成现实的伤害。今年4月我在社科院的中国首届人际传播论坛上发言的是《人际传播的阴暗面》,介绍和讨论了这方面的问题,这则新闻提供了一个活生生的例子——而且是互联网上出现的案例,值得关注。

 

附《纽约时报》报道原文:

November 27, 2008
Verdict in MySpace Suicide Case
By JENNIFER STEINHAUER
LOS ANGELES — A federal jury here issued what legal experts said was the country’s first cyberbullying verdict Wednesday, convicting a Missouri woman of three misdemeanor charges of computer fraud for her involvement in creating a phony account on MySpace to trick a teenager, who later committed suicide.

The jury deadlocked on a fourth count of conspiracy against the woman, Lori Drew, 49, and the judge, George H. Wu of Federal District Court, declared a mistrial on that charge.

Although it was unclear how severely Ms. Drew would be punished — the jury reduced the charges to misdemeanors from felonies, and no sentencing date was set — the conviction was highly significant, computer fraud experts said, because it was the first time that a federal statute designed to combat computer crimes was used to prosecute what were essentially abuses of a user agreement on a social networking site.

Under federal sentencing guidelines, Ms. Drew could face up to three years in prison and $300,000 in fines, though she has no previous criminal record. Her lawyer has asked for a new trial.

In a highly unusual move, Thomas P. O’Brien, the United States attorney in Los Angeles, prosecuted the case himself with two subordinates after law enforcement officials in Missouri determined Ms. Drew had broken no local laws.

Mr. O’Brien, who asserted jurisdiction on the ground that MySpace is based in Los Angeles, where its servers are housed, said the verdict sent an “overwhelming message” to users of the Internet.

“If you are going to attempt to annoy or go after a little girl and you’re going to use the Internet to do so,” he said, “this office and others across the country will hold you responsible.”

During the five-day trial, prosecutors portrayed Ms. Drew as working in concert with her daughter, Sarah, who was then 13, and Ashley Grills, a family friend and employee of Ms. Drew’s magazine coupon business in Dardenne Prairie, Mo.

Testimony showed that they created a teenage boy, “Josh Evans,” as an identity on MySpace to communicate with Sarah’s nemesis, Megan Meier, who was 13 and had a history of depression and suicidal impulses.

After weeks of online courtship with “Josh,” Megan was distressed one afternoon in October 2006, according to testimony at the trial, when she received an e-mail message from him that said, “The world would be a better place without you.”

Ms. Grills, who is now 20, testified under an immunity agreement that shortly after that message was sent, Megan wrote back, “You’re the kind of boy a girl would kill herself over.” Megan hanged herself that same afternoon in her bedroom.

Although the jury appeared to reject the government’s contention that Ms. Drew had intended to harm Megan — a notion underlying the felony charges — the convictions signaled the 12 members’ belief that she had nonetheless violated federal laws that prohibit gaining access to a computer without authorization.

Specifically, the jury found Ms. Drew guilty of accessing a computer without authorization on three occasions, a reference to the fraudulent postings on MySpace in the name of Josh Evans.

Legal and computer fraud experts said the application of the federal Computer Fraud and Abuse Act, passed in 1986 and amended several times, appeared to be expanding with technology and the growth of social networking on the Internet. More typically, prosecutions under the act have involved people who hack into computer systems.

“Keep in mind that social networking sites like MySpace did not exist until recently,” said Nick Akerman, a New York lawyer who has written and lectured extensively on the act. “This case will be simply another important step in the expanded use of this statute to protect the public from computer crime.”

Other computer fraud experts said they found the verdict chilling.

“As a result of the prosecutor’s highly aggressive, if not unlawful, legal theory,” said Matthew L. Levine, a former federal prosecutor who is a defense lawyer in New York, “it is now a crime to ‘obtain information’ from a Web site in violation of its terms of service. This cannot be what Congress meant when it enacted the law, but now you have it.”

Ms. Drew, who showed little emotion during the trial, sat stone-faced as the clerk read the jury’s verdict and left the courtroom quickly, her face red and twisted with rage.

Her lawyer, H. Dean Steward, said outside the courthouse that he believed the trial was grandstanding by Mr. O’Brien in an effort to keep his job, with the coming change in the White House.

“I don’t have any satisfaction at all,” Mr. Steward said of the verdict.

Judge Wu scheduled a hearing on the request for a new trial for late December.

Since the story surrounding the suicide became public last year, Mr. O’Brien has discussed with his staff how his feelings as a parent motivated him to bring the charges against Ms. Drew. He alluded to those feelings on Wednesday at a news conference.

“This was obviously a case that means a lot to me,” he said.

The case has been a collection of anomalies. Judge Wu appeared ambivalent regarding some key issues at the trial, like whether any testimony about Megan’s suicide would be allowed (he did allow it) and how to rule on a defense motion to throw out the charges (he had not ruled as of Wednesday).

Judge Wu was appointed to the federal bench less than two years ago, and it is difficult to establish his sentencing record. But Mr. Akerman, the computer fraud expert, said jail time was common even for first-time offenders in computer fraud cases.

“If I were her,” he said of Ms. Drew, “I would not be celebrating over the Thanksgiving weekend.”

Tina Meier, Megan’s mother, said in a news conference after the verdict that she hoped Ms. Drew would serve jail time, and that she felt satisfied.

“This day is not any harder than the day when I found Megan,” Ms. Meier said. “This has never been about vengeance. This is about justice. For me it’s absolutely worth it every single day sitting in that court hoping there was justice.”


 

年度词汇

星期二, 十二月 2nd, 2008

上午偶然来到Merrian-Webster,发现该网站根据网络用户的搜索次数,评选出了08年“年度词汇”http://www.merriam-webster.com/info/08words.htm)。其中bailout名列榜首,美国人还是很实在,毕竟生意才是头等大事。2至5名都与竞选有关。像maverick就是麦凯恩及其班底经常用来自况的用词,这个词据说起源于一个叫Maverick的农场主,以特立独行著称,甚至不在自己的牛身上烙标记(如果只有他一人这么干,当然不会出乱子,但是学得人多了,估计谁也承担不了丢牛的后果,可见特立独行的收益是边际递减的)。

我又上google trend上搜索了一下bailout的搜索频率,果真是到年末才异军突起。突然想起每年中国语言大学等单位都会通过对媒体进行内容分析,评选年度流行词汇。推敲起来,其实他们评选的只是记者和作家所使用的“年度词汇”。他们想当然认为媒体内容会影响受众,背后其实还是魔弹论心理在作祟。为什么不使用像百度等搜索引擎或新浪等新闻点击量的数据呢?又简单又直接,虽然其代表性仍然有限,但毕竟更接近普通人的语言使用情况。

 

 

 

 

 

附:韦氏字典评选的08年度十大词汇

  1. bailout
  2. vet
  3. socialism
  4. maverick
  5. bipartisan
  6. trepidation
  7. precipice
  8. rogue
  9. misogyny
  10. turmoil

 

 


MSN空间完美搬家到新浪博客!

推荐最近看过的两篇冰点的文章

星期三, 十一月 26th, 2008
第一篇是:
 
《中国电影的毛病在哪里——贾樟柯访谈》

http://zqb.cyol.com/content/2008-11/26/content_2446806.htm

 

第二篇前一段时间看过的一篇:

《可怕的只有两种声音》

http://zqb.cyol.com/content/2008-11/05/content_2418156.htm


MSN空间完美搬家到新浪博客!

Your Inner Fish

星期日, 十一月 16th, 2008

 

 

周五下午到宾大人类学和考古学博物馆参加一个叫Surviving Experience的关于人类进化的展览介绍。最后居然被抽中得到一本书finding the inner fish。对于一个从来没有中过奖的人来说,这是一件多么令人激动的事情啊!

这是一个生物解剖学专家Neil Shubin讲寻找长脚的鱼,即填补鱼与爬行动物之间进化链条化石的故事。遇上下雨,到图书馆找个舒服的沙发,看了开头。作者从解剖学的角度探索了人身体的许多部件上保存的鱼的痕迹。难道他想证明美人鱼确实存在吗?

“七”乐无穷,尽在新浪新版博客,快来体验啊~~~请点击进入~

推荐《纽约客》一篇分析奥巴马竞选宣传的分析文章

星期一, 十一月 10th, 2008

因为字数超限,只能发个链接。从竞选策略角度做了全面地报道与分析。

 

 

Battle Plans

How Obama won.

by Ryan Lizza November 17, 2008

http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2008/11/17/081117fa_fact_lizza?currentPage=all

“七”乐无穷,尽在新浪新版博客,快来体验啊~~~请点击进入~